Are publishers & bookstores placing all their eggs in one basket?

Sep 16 2009

Yesterday’s release of Dan Brown’s much anticipated new book The Lost Symbol has been making waves in the publishing world and with booksellers alike since he announced a new book earlier in the year. I bought a copy of the book at my local bookstore and am currently reading it. I’ll try to post my thoughts on the book when I’m finished.

But all the publicity of Dan Brown’s novel got me thinking: Do publishers and bookstores (large chain bookstores) rely on too few titles to sustain their current business model? I think the answer is yes. It’s no secret that bookstore chains like Barnes & Noble and Borders are relying on Dan Brown’s new release, the Ted Kennedy autobiography, and a few others to make up for a rather dismal year.

There’s always a chance these books might flop. However, the numbers from yesterday’s sales are coming in and they are looking pretty good. Here’s what Publishers Weekly is saying this morning:

Dan Brown’s The Lost Symbol seemed do deliver the big sales on day one that publisher Random House was counting on. Barnes & Noble announced late yesterday that the sales for the book, which had the largest pre-order for any adult fiction title in the store’s history, exceeded expectations.

The article continues:

B&N noted that The Lost Symbol was its top selling e-book and, in Amazon’s Kindle Store, the title is also #1.

While it’s looking like The Lost Symbol will probably boost store sales at the large chains, there is always the risk that the opposite might happen. If the book/s flop, then the publishers and bookstores will have invested a lot of time and money on a product that will be nothing more than a money pit.

There’s also the argument that people will only go into the bookstore to buy these highly publicized titles and nothing else. A large part of bookstore’s strategy is to get customers to come in for The Lost Symbol (for example) and leave with a few more titles in hand. But if customers only buy one title, bookstores aren’t likely to make much of a profit – partly because they discount books so much.

Deep book discounts hurting independent booksellers

Dan Brown’s The Lost Symbol is priced at $29.95, though stores like Barnes & Noble, Borders and even Target are selling the book for less that $20. While these deep discounts help sales, they hurt the independent stores:

In the Midwest, several independents said they had sold few, if any copies of Symbol, because of deep discounting by non-bookstore outlets, especially Target. Hans Weyandt, co-owner of Micawber’s in St. Paul, didn’t sell any copies of Symbol which he attributed to Target, noting the full page ad the chain took out in the New York Times Sunday Book Review promoting the book for $16.99 (full price is $29.95). “I can’t compete with that,” he said.

So it’s no surprise that independent stores are closing up shop all around the country. They simply cannot match the discounts offered by the large chains without losing a lot of money.

Implications for the future of publishing

The current model of depending on relatively few authors and titles to make up the bulk of revenue for publishers cannot be sustained. Most large publishing houses are struggling financially and are giving too much attention to high-profile authors at the expense of new authors.

On the surface, that makes sense. Throw your marketing, production and distribution dollars at a ’sure thing’. But it’s obviously not working as well as it used to – if it was working, publishers would be enjoying hefty profits. The other problem is that no new authors are getting a chance to become tomorrow’s bestsellers. There are a lot of great writers out there with a lot of potential, however, even they have a hard time getting noticed by the big houses.

I believe, and I’m certainly not alone in this belief, is that the future of publishing will see a large proliferation of small, niche, indie publishers who will take a chance on unknown authors and propelling many of their careers into the stratosphere. And I also think self-publishing will play a big part in this as well. The stigma of self-publishing is slowly fading away (although a lot more work needs to be done in this area).

We are starting to see that indie authors who get their hands dirty and take a ‘grassroots’ approach to marketing their books are seeing some success. This means that they get out and interact with their readers via the internet and in person at readings, signings and generally promoting themselves like any other business.

Will there always be a future for large publishing houses? Probably. The job of the literary agent is probably pretty secure as well – although agents might find themselves working with more indie publishers and authors. This shift in the publishing industry won’t happen overnight. The change has already begun and it will be a gradual phasing in of a newer, more sustainable model that will hopefully put more money in the pockets of the authors than the highly-paid publishing executives.

Where do you think the publishing industry is headed? Do you agree with me, or do you think I’m a deluded psychopath? Either way, I want to hear from you. Share your answer below with a comment!

One Response

If the newspapers are any indication of where the publishing industry is heading, we can expect major change coming to the way books are published and sold today. You are correct, the change has begun but I don’t think it will be as gradual as you predict.

Software innovation and printing technology, particularly, POD, is placing self publishing ahead of the curve. Publishers and agents may have to sit up and take notice before the train leaves the station.

This can be both good and bad. Good that a lot of fresh material will come available (as opposed to reprints from established authors that the publishers find financially safe) and bad that floodgates will be open for works that aren’t serious or poorly done. Until now, agents have always handled that task.

In any event, change is here.

David

David Faxon 9/26/2009 9:32 pm