Publishing predictions for 2008
I’m sure most of you are tired of hearing about "New Year’s Resolutions", "Why 2008 will be different", and even "Best of 2007" lists. Frankly, I’m tired of those things too. However, I do think (and I’m not alone) that 2008 will be a pivotal year for ebooks specifically and publishing in general.
Mike Shatzkin, founder of the Idea Logical Company, and someone who has been closely following publishing’s digital "rebirth", wrote an article for Publishers Weekly called 15 Trends to Watch in 2008.
I’m not going to re-hash each prediction he makes as I’m sure most of you are content to read the article for yourself. But there are a few interesting ones I’d like to highlight. The first is pretty broad and sweeping, but not all that surprising:
The popularity of e-books will increase, with titles formatted for Amazon’s Kindle leading the way. Content for the Sony Reader will sell faster than ever, but by this time next year, Kindle-compatible books ill be outselling them by more than 2 to 1.
I guess this disappoints me that the Sony Reader won’t do better because I own the first-generation Reader. Again, however, these are just predictions so the market can swing in any direction. The first predicition continues:
And Kindle pricing will drive the market. But despite the fast growth, e-books will still make up a tiny share of the market—no more than 2% of sales for most titles—and will contribute only a minimal amount to publishers’ bottom lines.
The part about the Kindle pricing driving the market is good news. I find Amazon’s prices on ebooks to be fair (much better than Sony’s, which appear to be only a few dollars cheaper than the print version). Even the bit about ebooks still making up no more than 2% of the market can be seen as good: that means there’s lots of room to grow, and despite the surging popularity, the field is still pretty wide open.
I’m going to jump down to prediction number 5, because it is something I haven’t even considered:
Christmas 2008 will be the first one in which sales of customized books, enabled by the Internet and print-on-demand, will become substantial.
Does this mean a return of the vanity press? I imagine it will be something of a cross between what companies like CafePress have done to the make-your-own-tshirt market and the self-publishing many independent authors have taken up with a new enthusiasm given the speed technology is moving. I’ll be very interested to see how this prediction plays out over the next 12 months.
As a proud new owner of an iPhone, I’m very interested in this next prediction:
Apple, seeing the growth in use of Kindle and Sony Reader, will move to turn the iPhone and iPod into e-book readers.
Yes, yes and yes! However, let me qualify that by saying I don’t think Apple is going to revolutionize the ebook business like it did for digital music. On the other hand, they already have a pretty strong infrastructure already in place: popular products that fly off the shelf and iTunes, which can very easily sell ebooks. So they won’t be re-inventing the wheel to get ebooks into the hands of consumers.
Right now, the iPhone and the iPod Touch stand the best chance of being used as ebook readers. The design is excellent, and the scrolling technology lends itself nicely to ebook reading. I don’t think, however, that people who own earlier iPod generations will be filling them up with electronic literature. The screens are too small and that damn backlight eats up a lot of power (not to mention kills your eyes).
Okay, so I’ve touched on a few key predictions. Everything could be wrong and we could see ebooks die out totally (I highly doubt it, but hey, strange things do happen).
I will say one last thing about ebook devices. There’s a big trend in combining electronic devices together. For example, a lot of cell phones are also digital cameras, mp3 players, video recorders, internet browsers and so forth. My point is that stand-alone ebook readers, while great in theory and concept, will probably not enjoy a huge mainstream following. Once ebooks really take off, people will want them formatted to work on their existing electronics. I mean, come on, who really wants to lug an iPhone AND a Sony Reader around town all day? My back hurts just thinking about it!
With all that said, the next year will be interesting. Aside from seeing what’s in store for the world of publishing, I’m also excited about seeing what technology will do this year. I’ve been following the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) going on and some nifty new gadgets will be hitting the market this year. Now if only my bank account could keep up with my growing addiction to fancy electronics…
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